Chelsea; 11th – 39 points
Is relegation unlikely despite a terrible season? Very.
Can they realistically be pulled into a scrap between now and the end of May? Doubtful.
Will it be funny if they somehow got relegated, hence the reason for having them on here? Incredibly so.
Crystal Palace; 12th – 36 points
When Palace got rid of Patrick Vieira after that barren run and dragged Roy Hodgson out of the hall of retirement, it seemed like an absurd call. Three games in, it feels like a masterstroke. Three wins in a row since Roy returned, scoring nine goals on the way. At this point, finishing above Chelsea looks more plausible than going down.
Wolves; 13th – 34 points
Wolves were bottom of the table when Bruno Lage left earlier in the season. They’ve been dogged by inconsistency under Julen Lopetegui, and the goals are still scarce, but the team in gold haven’t lost in three, and are seven points clear of the drop-zone. Survival looks within reach, and you wonder how far they can go if Lopetegui gets to remould this team from next season. Or they could suffer a late-season collapse and go down.
Bournemouth; 14th – 33 points
We didn’t think Bournemouth would be here. Not after the 9-0 drubbing at Liverpool in August that saw Scott Parker embrace defeatism and the sack. Not after their run earlier this year. But Gary O’Neil’s Cherries have won three in four, the latest of which was a dramatic victory against Spurs. Their next three games – against fellow strugglers West Ham, Southampton, and Leeds – will be telling. Two wins from those, and they might well be safe.
West Ham; 15th – 31 points
It’s safe to say this season hasn’t gone according to plan for West Ham, and lately every weekend has felt like the weekend before David Moyes got sacked. But the Scotsman stays on, and the Hammers are unbeaten in four of their last five games, including that solid point against leaders Arsenal. They play Bournemouth next, and it’s a game they should be looking at with three points in mind, especially since they follow that with four games in which they face Liverpool and both Manchester sides.
Leeds; 16th – 29 points
Opinion, perhaps an unpopular one; Leeds would likely have stayed up with Jesse Marsch anyway. Yes, his touchline angst did become too much at times, and for Leeds fans, the football did sometimes veer between ‘what are we watching’ and ‘oh god end this now’, but the underlying numbers suggested they were better than the results indicated. What marked Marsch’s Leeds out was the results against ‘bigger’ sides, or at least the threat they offered. Under Javi Gracia, the reverse is the case; the wins are coming against the sides you’d say are on their level, and there’s a level of acceptance for defeats against the top six – although there was the anomaly of the thrashing at the hands of Crystal Palace. If that’s the mantra then the next three games are crucial, two of which are against Leicester (two places and two points below) and Bournemouth (two places and four points above). After that, three of their final four games are against sides in the top five.
Everton; 17th – 27 points
There was the new manager bounce against Arsenal, and gritty wins against Leeds and Brentford, but Everton are still lodged firmly in the relegation under Sean Dyche. They haven’t won in four, and recently offered a tame effort in the home defeat to out-of-form Fulham. You feel they’d have enough to survive, especially given who the manager is, but things look more dangerous than optimistic right now.
Nottingham Forest; 18th – 27 points
Steve Cooper hasn’t been sacked yet, that seems to be the story with Forest of late. A story which is a touch absurd not just because of his miraculous promotion last season, but also given he’s had to manage of squad of over 25 new players since August. Then there’s the case that because the Premier League is such a cash-grab, relegation seems abominable and the threat of it comes with the need to act fast. Surely Forest didn’t expect comfort when they came up last season, and so far, they’re only in the relegation zone on goal difference. It’s still salvageable, even if their final seven games involve games against Liverpool, Brighton, and Arsenal.
Leicester; 19th – 25 points
This time last season, Leicester were heading for a Europa Conference League semi-final under Brendan Rodgers. Fast forward 12 months and they’re looking at the possibility of Championship football. Rodgers was binned a few weeks earlier, partly due to his inability to re-raise morale at clubs when it dips, a reputation he might be having now, and partly because Leicester did such a shoddy recruitment job this season. Dean Smith has been brought in on a short-term deal, but that feels more like seeking a new manager bounce and momentum spin than a well-thought-out decision. 4 defeats in a row, the Foxes might pay the price for a poorly planned season.
Southampton; 20th – 23 points
No team has been cut adrift yet in the relegation battle. But Southampton are looking like the side that sinks first. The Saints’ decision to bin Ralph Hasenhuttl may have been justified, but the appointment of Nathan Jones was a farce that brilliantly played itself out. Things have looked a lot less comical under Ruben Selles, but Southampton have lost four in five, conceding 12 in that time, and are four points from safety. They travel to the leaders Arsenal next, before playing Bournemouth and Forest in two of the three games that will follow. Anything less than six points in the next five, and you start to think they’re done.
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